Why India’s Foreign Tourist Arrivals Are Likely to Underperform in 2025
Tourism is another difficult year in India with the India foreign tourist arrivals still lagging behind the expectations of 2025. In spite of a healthy domestic travel recovery, the numbers of visitors overseas are lower than those before the pandemic. The January to September 2025 data indicates a straight downward trend in regard to the previous year and it is alarming in the build-up to the crucial peak season. The high travel cost, poor infrastructure and safety perception are structural problems that are still in existence. Also in the line as new disruptors are geopolitical upheavals in neighbouring countries as well as cancellations of flights that have the potential of squashing international tourist confidence in India.
Foreign Tourist Arrivals Remain Below Expectations
In January and September 2025, India registered 6.18 million arrivals of foreign tourists and 7.06 million arrivals in January and September 2024 onwards respectively. In the past, the last quarter accounted for almost 30% of the total number of foreign arrivals in a year owing to festivals and winter holidays. Nevertheless, first signs indicate that this seasonal increase can be too little to drink up losses during the first nine months. Consequently, the recovery to pre-pandemic levels of India foreign tourist arrivals can be once again missed, which will disappoint both the policy and the industry stakeholders.
High Costs and Infrastructure Gaps
Cost competitiveness is one of the greatest challenges of the India tourism industry. Hotel tariffs, airfare and internal travel costs in India are usually expensive compared to other similar destinations like Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia. Moreover, lack of proper last-mile connectivity, congested airports, and unreliable quality of tourism infrastructures still impact the experience of visitors. These discourage the international budget conscience traveller who has cheaper and effortless options in Asia.
Geopolitical and Safety Concerns
The perception of safety is a delicate topic that will shape the foreign tourist numbers 2025. The international travelling community was reminded of issues to do with security with the recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, in earlier years. Further, the instability in politics in Bangladesh, which provides India with one of its major source markets, has also seen the arrivals in the neighbouring country drastically reducing. These occasions are likely to create a disproportionate influence when it comes to travel choices, even when they are limited to particular regions.
Flight Disruptions During Peak Season
Tourism sentiment has also been burdened by air connectivity problems. The cancellation of flights of IndiGo that took place in December, which is a high travel month, affected the travel plans of thousands of international visitors. Poor flight time schedules destroy the trust of a foreign tourist since most of them make plans months before they intend to travel. In the case of a nation that wants to be a global tourism center, disruption of operations is a severe reputational threat.
Outlook for 2025
India may also become a loser among other competing destinations unless specific interventions in the form of policy are implemented to facilitate the visa processes, better infrastructure, safety communication, and reliable air operations. Unless these issues are mitigated with urgency, India foreign tourist arrivals will probably continue to be subdued till 2025, which will put the sector on hold.
