Two aspects of India’s Coronavirus trend still strong and constant – Increasing Positive tally and Declining mortality rate

Last updated on February 14th, 2023 at 12:39 pm

Close to four months in since Covid-19 pandemic struck India, several lockdowns and constant reshuffling between lockdowns and unlocking, India is scrambling to contain the novel coronavirus spread, as are almost all the countries across the world – some faring better than the other. In the scenario of India’s coronavirus stature two trends seem strong and more or less constant – continuous hike in the detected positive cases or the Positivity rate and a declining mortality rate.

Positivity rate can be explained as the number of people who are being tested positive of coronavirus among total being tested. It is also an indication of how widespread the infection is in a particular region. For instance, in the beginning of month of May the India recorded positivity rate of 4.14% – out of every 1000 people being tested for Covid-19 414 were coming out as positive. Over time this has increased to 7.44%, which is the current positivity rate. The continuous hike in people testing positive for coronavirus is a constant trend, at least for now.

Mortality rate is also known as death rate or case fatality ratio. This means it is the ratio of people deceasing due to coronavirus against the total positively tested people. This is a good indication of how the country is faring in saving people and averting deaths due to the virus – also an indication of country’s healthcare system. In May, India was witnessing a mortality rate of 3.28% which has declined over time to current 2.64%. This implies India is improving constantly at saving people and reducing the death rate.

An increased positivity rate in India is indicative of how widespread the infection is in that region and is possibly spreading at a fast pace, which many healthcare authorities are calling as “community spread”. But the fact that in India testing is still selective and restrictive, the wider picture is probably different.

Many states, due to logistics and capacity constraints, are not able to test at a larger scale. Currently, maximum states are doing testing based on symptoms, contact tracing or travel history. The testing sample group is a high risk group which is more likely to come out as positive for novel coronavirus as compared to random testing. It is of belief that if testing in India advances to a random framework, the “positivity rate” will probably be much lower. But this can also sideline the high-risk patients, which cannot be afforded. In this scenario, positivity rate is going to increase for now.

Scientists and health officials believe that by the time pandemic ends and a more reliable statistic is formulated about the extent of coronavirus impact, the death rate is likely to fall well below 1%.

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India has reached a tally of 907,645 Covid-19 positive cases, with 28,000 cases being recorded in a single day on Monday. Death count in country stands at 23,727.