Will Rishi Sunak Hold onto the Safest Seat in the UK? | Election 2024

When the Conservative Party picked Rishi Sunak to run for the Richmond (Yorkshire) seat in the 2015 parliamentary elections, most voters in the constituency had no idea who he was. Until then, his most notable identity was as the son-in-law of Infosys founder Narayana Murthy, married to Akshata Murthy. Sunak had impressive degrees from Oxford, Stanford, and Winchester College, but no political background. Born in 1980 in Southampton to a doctor and a chemist, both of Indian origin from East Africa, Sunak proudly practiced Hinduism.

Despite his background, election success wasn’t guaranteed. Did the Conservative Party gamble on a relatively unknown 34-year-old with a “college kid” look who had a successful career in investment banking in the US? Not really, because they assigned him the safest Tory seat in the country. The party bosses must have seen something special in him. Though initially not considered a local, Sunak won by a significant majority.

Understanding Richmond

Richmond, located in Yorkshire in the north of England, is known for its picturesque rural villages and semi-urban beauty. Despite Yorkshire’s general leaning towards Labour, Richmond has been a stronghold for the Conservative Party since 1910, making it a safe seat for Sunak. He easily retained his seat in the 2017 and 2019 elections and became the country’s first non-White Prime Minister in 2022.

The Labour Onslaught

One might assume Sunak would easily win a fourth time. If Richmond voters trusted an unknown candidate in 2015, why would they reject him now, especially as he has become globally recognized as the first non-White British Prime Minister? However, things could change. Historically, even the safest Tory seats fell to Labour under Tony Blair’s leadership, and the Conservatives are in a worse situation now, with predictions pointing to significant losses in the upcoming election.

Furthermore, in a surprising turn, Rochdale, a Labour stronghold, elected George Galloway of the Workers Party of Britain in a by-election this year. Last year, Labour won two of the safest Tory seats in by-elections. More concerning for Sunak, a Labour candidate recently won the mayor’s election by a large margin in an area covering parts of his constituency, traditionally a Conservative stronghold. This victory has emboldened Sunak’s Labour rival in Richmond, who believes Labour is in a strong position to cause an upset.

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Is UK ready for a change in Government 2024?

The boundaries of many House of Commons seats have been changed, affecting Richmond, now known as Richmond and Northallerton. Will the voters in Northallerton be as supportive of Sunak as those in Richmond? It’s uncertain. A recent poll indicates that Sunak’s lead is narrowing to just over 2%.

Local newspapers have reported on interviews with many Tory voters in Richmond and Northallerton, revealing a growing desire for change, which might not bode well for Sunak. However, with nearly four weeks until the election, anything can happen in politics.