Jo Jeeta Wahi Sikandar: Lok Sabha Elections 2024

The 2024 Lok Sabha Elections has presented a complex narrative of success and disappointment. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) emerged as the largest party, securing 240 seats. However, this result disappointed BJP as they failed to achieve the outright majority that the party and its supporters had anticipated, especially given the campaign “Abki Baar 400 Paar”, aiming for more than 400 seats. On the other hand the Congress Party led INDIA alliance, with just 99 seats, celebrated their unexpected comeback.

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BJP’s Mixed Feelings of Triumph and Loss

Despite coming as the largest party for the third time and on their way to their third consecutive term, the BJP’s performance in 2024 elections is seen as a significant setback. The party’s total seat count fell well below the required 272 seat majority in the 543 seat parliament, forcing dependence on coalition partners to form the government. This came as a shock for BJP as in previous two elections of 2014 and 2019  the party enjoyed a clear majority with 300+ seats, making the current result feels like an underachievement.

 Prime Minister Modi, who has long been sensed as an invincible leader, now faces a diminished aura of invincibility. This election proved that even a strong leader like Narendra Modi and his magic is vulnerable to the forces of anti incumbency. The loss of 50+ seats for BJP especially in the King maker state and BJP’s hub Uttar Pradesh is considered as a dent in Brand Modi, which had dominated Indian politics not just as the prime minister but also as the chief minister of his home state Gujarat.

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Factors Behind the BJP’s Decline

Several factors contributed to the BJP’s disappointing performance. The biggest setbacks came from UP’s Amethi and BJP’s ideological, religious and political city Ayodhya. Northern states like Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab and also Rajasthan  declined BJP which actually affected the seat game for the party. Economic issues such as unemployment, rising prices of fuels, LPG and other basic amenities and growing inequality have significantly impacted voter sentiments. The biggest strength of BJP in the last two elections, women and young voters did not show their faith in BJP this time. Heat waves played a major role in affecting the voting percentage which also came out as a disadvantage for BJP.

Congress’s Unexpected Revival

In this glaring contrast, the Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav led INDIA alliance experienced a surprising revival. The Congress Party which was declared dead by many analysts and political experts, managed to secure 99 seats. This result is a historic comeback for a party that has been struggling with leadership conflicts and internal division in the last few years. Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav also created magic by emerging as largest party in Uttar Pradesh and it is all because of the spirited campaign that defied expectations and showed resilience in the face of a partisan media landscape and limited resources.

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Return to Coalition Politics

This election signals a return to Coalition politics in India. Unlike the massive majorities of 2014 and 2019, the BJP now needs the support of its allies Nitish Kumar and Chandrbabu Naidu to govern. This dependency on coalition partners could lead to a more deliberative and consultative approach to governance, but it will also make the government more vulnerable to collapse if coalition partners feel dissatisfied or neglected.

A Resurgent Opposition and Future Challenges

The election results boosted a new energy in opposition, giving them renewed momentum and hope. The INDIA alliance proved their worth and power as strong competition for BJP. With upcoming state elections in Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi and Bihar, the opposition has the chance to build on its recent success and challenge the BJP at the state level.

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Looking Ahead: Modi’s Potential Third Term

If Modi secures a third term, his government will face significant challenges. The economy needs more private investments and consumption to boost growth and addressing rising inequality will be critical. The BJP will also need to fill the gap between young voters, who make up a significant portion of the electorate. Additionally the government has to navigate criticism over its handling of minority rights and allegations of suppressing disagreements.

The 2024 election results reflect a fluid political climate in India. While the BJP remains the largest party, its decreased seat count and dependency on coalition partners mark a shift from the dominance of the past decade. Vice versa, the Congress led opposition has shown unimaginable strength, creating a stage for a more competitive political environment. As India moves forward, the focus will be on economic challenges, promoting inclusive governance and ensuring democratic processes remain vigorous.