Key Reasons Behind Congress’s Defeat in Haryana Assembly Elections 2024

The Congress party that secured a decent vote share was shocked as the party lost the 2024 Haryana assembly elections. Some of the strategic errors, changing voter base, and the transformation of the contest into a more bipolar form were the causes of its demise. Now let us look at the causes of this electoral result and some leaders’ responses.

Strategic Voting and Distribution Flaws in Haryana Assembly Elections 2024

The Congress got 39.1% vote share, which was the party’s best show in the state since 2005. However, what mattered most, was its failure to translate the votes into seats. The Congress polled its votes in a large number of assembly segments but these got translated into lesser numbers of seats. Interestingly, while the AAP got a similar number of votes, the BJP had its votes distributed more efficiently resulting in a higher number of seats.

This can be seen in the sanction of the seat share to vote share ratio in which congress possessed one of the lowest conversion rates. While it had a firm vote base, it lacked focus in terms of geographical spread and in areas that required a firm localized support the party lacked it.

Bipolar Contest and Higher Threshold

This election was relatively bipolar than the recent ones as reflected by the ENOP (Effective Number of Parties). Thus, the decrease in vote scattering became notable when the contest was mainly between the Congress and the BJP. The average vote polled by successful parties was 48.9%, which was much higher than what Congress could achieve.

The Congress fell short of getting the required vote share in the marginal/semi-marginal constituencies while the BJP targeted the constituencies wherein it could cross the crucial vote share divide. This led to the Congress failing to perform well in areas that it anticipated a better performance in Hisar, Mahendragarh, and Panipat.

Leader Reactions and Complaints

Rahul Gandhi was not happy with the outcome and said that he would write to the Election Commission over some of the concerns raised by several constituencies. He thanked the people of Haryana for their support and promised to carry on the fight for justice in the party. Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera described the outcome as “unacceptable” due to the machines being faulty and the party could not believe what transpired.

The Congress is likely to demand a probe into these complaints, but equally important will be the internal audits as the party strategies for future polls.

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