Explained: Can India’s second Covid-19 wave be more devastating than the first

India is witnessing the second wave of Covid-19 with a number of new cases surpassing the previous day’s number. But the most critical part of this wave has been the speed with which the number of coronavirus cases is increasing. On Friday, India recorded a total of 62,000 Covid-19 positive cases. Merely 10 days ago, this number was less than 30,000. 

It took not even 10 days for the number to double. Last time India took 23 days to grow from 30,000 cases per day to 60,000 cases per day. This was last year around July-August when it was believed that a majority proportion of the population would have been infected with the virus (at least 40-50%) and now the numbers would start declining.

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In mid-September, after reaching the peak, for five months there was a constant decline in new cases being detected, raising hopes that a critical level of infection in the community has been reached. However, experts had never ruled out the possibility of the fresh wave, but it was expected to be short-lived and not as severe. 

But the way how cases are sky-rocketing currently, there is a good chance that the September peak might get surpassed. For now, the second wave has primarily been limited to Maharashtra. Though on Friday Punjab and Gujarat recorded their highest numbers ever, they still were one-tenth of Maharashtra. States like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, who had recorded their lowest numbers in February, too are having an increased number of cases. If it goes on the same way for these states then they too may give close competition to Maharashtra. 

This brings us to another remarkable feature of this second Covid-19 wave – a high concentration of positive cases in few states. This wave has consistently shown Maharashtra to contributes over 60% of cases per day. In all the only consolation is that even in all the mayhem, Maharashtra’s healthcare framework hasn’t been exhausted.  For now, there is no indication that the second wave of Covid-19 is going to end soon, but the only hope is that it doesn’t get worse than this, and healthcare frameworks don’t collapse under pressure.