China’s Disinformation Campaign Fuels Allegations of Taiwan President’s Escape Plans

Amid heightened tensions between China and Taiwan, Chinese state media outlets have been propagating unsubstantiated reports alleging that Taiwan’s outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen plans to flee the island in a U.S. plane if war breaks out. These narratives, originating from outlets controlled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), were quickly amplified by other official Chinese news sources, according to an analysis by the Information Environment Research Center (IORG), a Taiwan-based non-government organization.

Origin and Amplification of the Narratives

According to IORG’s analysis, the narrative that Tsai planned to flee in the event of a conflict with China and that Taiwan’s military drills were rehearsals for this, first appeared in June 2021 in an outlet controlled by the CCP. The report claimed that a U.S. military C-17 transport plane that had visited Taiwan that month was a “runaway plane” for Taiwan’s leadership.

Within three months, similar narratives emerged in 22 articles or videos published by other Chinese state media, as well as on social media accounts in China and Taiwan, and in comments by Taiwanese media outlets and politicians.

Amplification by Opposition Politicians and Local Media

The IORG analysis revealed that the narratives were further amplified by pro-Beijing voices, including Taiwan-based media outlets and social media accounts. Opposition politicians seeking office in the 2024 legislative elections, such as senior Kuomintang (KMT) lawmaker Fu Kun-Chi, also suggested that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would flee in the event of a conflict.

Other narratives, such as the claim that Tsai had issued “confidential passes” giving confidantes privileged access to military shelters in the event of war, originated with Taiwan-based news outlets before being modified and amplified by others, according to IORG’s timelines.

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China’s Denial and Taiwan’s Response

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, responsible for relations with Taipei, denied IORG’s research and accused the DPP of creating a “misinformation supply chain” that hurt the feelings of compatriots.

However, Taipei has repeatedly said the reports are false, and the government has not publicly detailed its plans for the leadership in the event of conflict. The presidential office separately told Reuters that China was engaged in “disinformation warfare” against the island.